Tag Archive for Type I errors

RE: Go Figure: Why we think rituals can influence results

Article: Blastland, M. (2011). “Go Figure: Why we think rituals can influence results.” bbc.co.uk. Visited on October 9th, 2012: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14917871 Summary: Humans have a strong capacity for pattern recognition. This is beneficial in many circumstances, aiding in our survival and helping us safely navigate our environment. However, the same cognitive mechanisms can also cause us to make incorrect associations between cause and effect. One example is a sports fan believing that a ritual like wearing “lucky” socks during an event will increase the chances of success for their favorite team. In statistics this over-interpretation of random events and correlations is known as a Type I error. The same type of behavior can be seen in animal studies, where pigeons will repeat an action that they have incorrectly assumed is the cause of food being delivered to them, when the timing was actually random. Conceptual Design: When designing a new product are we utilizing our users’ strength for pattern recognition?  Often humans can tease complex patterns from noisy data far more effectively than computers.  Can users effectively see the link between using our product and having the positive outcomes that they desire? If our product has benefits, we would definitely like our users…